NO RETURN TO STATUS QUO

Are fears of regional escalation in the Middle East this summer being fulfilled by this week's violence? Let's look at how regional rivalry contributes to the Israel-Hamas war.

By Jake

18 September 2024

A pager, reportedly inserted with exposives, lies ruptured after its targeted use against Hezbollah members in Lebanon. (Credit Mehr News, 2024)

Pagers and radios have exploded across Lebanon in the past two days, targeting Hezbollah members with Mossad as the most likely culprit. We are approaching one year since Hamas attacked Israel, and the conflict drags on. As missiles continue to fly, it's worth looking over the past year, especially the stalemate of the summer of 2024, and try to get inside the mind of those making decisions. 

Netanyahu, for all the drama within his government and system of alliances, has stayed in control. His war cabinet has continued the bombardment of suspected terrorist sites, often with civilians dying as part of their cold equations. Thousands of Israelis have been evacuated from the north for months upon fear of escalation with Hezbollah. In addition to the pager operation, IDF forces struck within Syria with a boots-on-ground operation, a notable event in a primarily missile-based war. Netanyahu expressed clearly that an imperfect peace plan now will only push the next conflict into the future - his stated goal is to prevent future conflicts completely. What would satisfy him, short of Iran’s leadership being removed from power by whatever means? Israel operates freely, knowing it has the backing of allies despite complaints from international organizations and courts.

The broader regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is important to understand the broader context. Israel sees Iran as the puppet master of the region’s instability, yet have stopped short of full military retaliation against Iran, beyond striking the Iranian embassy in Damascus which triggered the Iranian missile attacks of April 13, 2024. Saudi Arabia enjoys support from Western leaders that turn a blind eye to its human rights abuses, and was about to normalize relations with Israel before the current conflict started. Iran is aligned militarily with Russia and China, and has loudly complained of hypocritical sanctions imposed by the west. While the Biden administration has opened some channels with Iran, it is clear that the state's pursuit of nuclear arms is a huge pressure on the region. Israel already struck Iranian nuclear facilities with a cyberattack that made a massive centrifuge rip itself apart.

The answer will never be war, which will just increase the number of innocents sheltering from missile and drone attacks. It is deplorable that diplomacy across the world boils down to shipping weapons to proxy groups with little oversight, all while padding the pockets of weapons manufacturers. Diplomacy is necessary, and there are multiple angles. We’ve already discussed Egypt, but they’ve been shut out of the southern crossing by Israel and are distracted by the Nile damming dispute by Ethiopia. Perhaps rational leaders can build upon the Iraqi-Chinese brokered talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year, in order to see what arms control can be imposed to prevent the arming of terror groups. Maybe religious leaders from the Shia and Sunni sects can contribute. All rational leaders in the Middle East share the value of al-Quds and other religious and historic sites. Israel will not be reassured by a return to the status quo, with Hamas empowered by foreign actors in Gaza. Arab states need to take an active role not just in opposing the disproportionate attacks by the IDF, but in volunteering to oversee a post-war Palestinian government that can give its people opportunities. Last month, a child in Gaza contracted polio from contaminated water, the Strip’s first recorded case in 25 years. The humanitarian crisis will continue, even escalate, if military assistance leads to insecurity rather than the right of any nation to be secure. The region will be forever shaped by these events, from shattered families to geopolitical alliances.

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